See the process. Change the outcome.
Region v0.5 · 1,000 paired simulated futures per shock · ranks scenarios, not a forecast
Argentina misses a bond payment in January 2027. Its own borrowing cost jumps about 6.5 points. Lenders pass 0.18 points to every neighbour the next quarter, and it halves every two quarters. Only Mexico’s debt risk edges up (+0.4 pts by 2030, within noise).
“Countries alone” switches lenders and learning investors off and keeps everything else. The debt-risk column always compares links on with the same futures without the shock (± one standard error). Venezuela’s borrowing cost is an index: its bonds have no market price.
Currency and commodity links make countries move together; they do not shift average outcomes much, so hiding them changes the map, not the numbers. Lender links and world shocks drive the numbers above. The lender pass-through is the 2% measured out of sample; “Run the model” can run the 10% stress case.